Patient flow models
Start from the total population and apply a series of attrition factors and routing nodes to explain volumes and how they evolve.
Life Sciences · Where it's different
Every product, its own rules. Every forecast, its own model.
Pharmaceuticals, devices, diagnostics and consumer health each reach patients their own way. Authorities decide when and for whom, payers decide at what price. Forecasting them takes tailored models, built on inputs from every function.Each product family has its own rules. Each needs its own model.
- Pharmaceuticals
- Vaccines & biologics
- Medical devices
- Diagnostics
- Consumer health & dermocosmetics
- Business AnalyticsVolume modeling and consolidation of cross-functional assumptions
- Pricing & Market AccessWho is funded, from when, at what price
- RegulatoryLaunch dates, country by country
- MedicalEpidemiology and market definition
- FinanceProcess orchestration and internal timelines
Regulated by design
Every milestone is a forecast assumption.
Before a product sells, it must be authorized, assessed and priced, country by country. Each step adds an assumption with its own date, probability and owner, and a delay in one market or a price set in another reshapes the whole forecast.
- DevelopmentClinical evidence · probability of success
- Marketing authorizationFDA, EMA · launch date, label
- Health technology assessmentNICE, G-BA, HAS · eligible patients, price premium
- Pricing & reimbursementCountry by country · net price, first sales
- Launch sequenceMarket by market · timing, reference-price exposure
- Reference pricingIRP, MFN · price erosion across countries
- Loss of exclusivityGenerics, biosimilars · volume and price decline
Three customers, one product
The prescriber decides. The patient uses. The payer funds.
Three decisions, three sets of assumptions, often owned by three teams: market research for prescribing, epidemiology and real-world data for uptake and persistence, market access for coverage. When they don't meet in one model, the forecast is wrong by design.
In consumer health, all three are often the same person, and demand-based models apply.
One industry, many businesses
Every market needs its own forecasting logic.
Three approaches, one for each type of market.
Market trend models
Project volumes from sales history and market drivers such as seasonality, distribution and promotion. The method also suits legacy brands with a long track record.
Contract & tender models
Build volumes from contracts and tenders, where the market relies mostly on them. Award probabilities, contract terms and installed bases drive the forecast.
Innovative products
- New molecular entities
- Biologics
- Cell & gene therapies
- Vaccines
- Companion diagnostics
- Novel medical devices
The gold standard for new medicines, before launch and across the lifecycle. Patient-based models explain volumes best when a product reaches several indications, launched one after another.
Established products
- Legacy brands
- Generics
- Biosimilars
- OTC medicines
- Vitamins & supplements
- Dermocosmetics
Generics and biosimilars inherit the originator's demand history; consumer products follow channels, seasons and promotions. Volumes are best projected from the market itself.
Contracted products
- Tendered vaccines
- Hospital equipment
- Implants & consumables
- In vitro diagnostics
Hospitals and health systems buy through contracts and tenders, so volumes follow installed bases, procurement cycles and award rates.
Across the lifecycle
The forecast changes shape over a product's life.
Years before launch, a top-down estimate is enough to value an asset. As evidence builds, price and volume need their own models: early access and reference pricing, rebates and managed entry agreements, then patient-based, contract-based and demand-based volumes.
The IT challenge
Many segments. No single tool.
Companies active in several markets need patient-based, demand-based and contract-based models side by side. No off-the-shelf software covers that spectrum, so each team builds its own, and Business Analytics reconciles them by hand: a nightmare for IT and digital departments.
The result: a complex IT landscape, dominated by spreadsheets and slide decks.
Our answer
One forecasting discipline, across every segment.
Healthcare budgets are tightening, and in the United States Most Favored Nation pricing is reshaping the global business model. Operational efficiency is no longer optional.
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